Euro 2024 Semifinal: Spain vs. France – Background, Records, Odds, and Match Insights

Euro 2024 Semifinal: Spain vs. France – Background, Records, Odds, and Match Insights

The Best Attack vs. The Best Defense

Every time Spain and France have faced each other in a Euro knockout stage, the winner has gone on to claim the championship. Will history repeat itself? Here are the odds and records at stake before the kickoff at 21:00 in Munich.

The Euro 2024 presents another epic clash on Tuesday as Spain and France meet in Munich at 21:00 for a spot in the final.

The march to Berlin features the best defense of Euro 2024 against the best attack. Spain has scored 11 goals, more than any other team, while France has conceded only one in five matches. The Spanish should be the favorites as they arrive in Munich having defeated every team in their path.

They finished first in a tough group with Italy and Croatia, and then overcame Germany 2-1 in a last-minute quarter-final, although marred by penalty controversy against the hosts.

France hasn’t been as convincing. They failed to score a single open-play goal throughout the tournament, won their round of 16 match against Belgium thanks to an own goal, and then relied on a dramatic penalty shootout to oust Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.

Historically Decisive Euro Matchups: Who Has the Better Record?

Encounters between France and Spain have always been decisive in Euro history.

Every time the two teams have met in a knockout stage, the winner went on to lift the trophy. This occurred in 1984 (France), 2000 (France), and 2012 (Spain).

Overall, France has a better record in major tournaments, including the World Cup, with three wins compared to Spain’s one and one draw.

Experts, Bookmakers, and Algorithms (with Caution) Favor Spain

Spain holds a slight edge over France. With a streak of five consecutive victories, the highest number of goals scored, and only two conceded, nothing seems capable of stopping De La Fuente’s team. France’s scoring issues and lack of flair also point in that direction.

However, Spain’s occasional struggles to convert possession into goals could be problematic, especially against a solid, experienced defensive team like France, which can also rely on the speed of Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, and Eduardo Camavinga to create counterattack opportunities.

Most predictions reflect this, with Spain remaining the favorite, but not by an overwhelming margin. Google’s forecast places Spain ahead with a 36% chance of winning compared to France’s 31%, with a 33% chance of a draw in 90 minutes.

Opta’s algorithm predicts even more uncertainty, giving Spain a 49.7% chance of reaching the final against France’s 50.21% in a head-to-head. Another factor adding to the uncertainty is that Spain will play without Pedri, who is injured, and Carvajal, who is suspended